Improved HAC Covariance Matrix Estimation Based on Forecast Errors

We propose computing HAC covariance matrix estimators based on one-stepahead forecasting errors. It is shown that this estimator is consistent and has smaller bias than other HAC estimators. Moreover, the tests that rely on this estimator have more accurate sizes without sacrificing its power.forecast error, HAC estimator, kernel estimator, recursive residual, robust test

Efficient Neural Network Robustness Certification with General Activation Functions

Finding minimum distortion of adversarial examples and thus certifying robustness in neural network classifiers for given data points is known to be a challenging problem. Nevertheless, recently it has been shown to be possible to give a non-trivial certified lower bound of minimum adversarial distortion, and some recent progress has been made towards this direction by exploiting the piece-wise linear nature of ReLU activations. However, a generic robustness certification for general activation functions still remains largely unexplored. To address this issue, in this paper we introduce CROWN, a general framework to certify robustness of neural networks with general activation functions for given input data points. The novelty in our algorithm consists of bounding a given activation function with linear and quadratic functions, hence allowing it to tackle general activation functions including but not limited to four popular choices: ReLU, tanh, sigmoid and arctan. In addition, we facilitate the search for a tighter certified lower bound by adaptively selecting appropriate surrogates for each neuron activation. Experimental results show that CROWN on ReLU networks can notably improve the certified lower bounds compared to the current state-of-the-art algorithm Fast-Lin, while having comparable computational efficiency. Furthermore, CROWN also demonstrates its effectiveness and flexibility on networks with general activation functions, including tanh, sigmoid and arctan.Comment: Accepted by NIPS 2018. Huan Zhang and Tsui-Wei Weng contributed equall

To Score or Not to Score? Estimates of a Sponsored Search Auction Model

We estimate a structural model of a sponsored search auction model. To accomodate the "position paradox", we relax the assumption of decreasing click volumes with position ranks, which is often assumed in the literature. Using data from "Website X", one of the largest online market places in China, we find that merchants of different qualities adopt different bidding strategies: high quality merchants bid more aggressively for informative keywords, while low quality merchants are more likely to be sorted to the top positions for value keywords. Counterfactual evaluations show that the price trend becomes steeper after moving to a score-weighted generalized second price auction, with much higher prices obtained for the top position but lower prices for the other positions. Overall, there is only a very modest change in total revenue from introducing popularity scoring, despite the intent in bid scoring to reward popular merchants with price discounts

Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells Using Mesocarbon Microbead-Based Counter Electrodes

The dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) equipped with mesocarbon microbead (MCMB)-based counter electrodes were explored to examine their cell performance. Three types of nanosized additives including platinum, carbon nanotubes (CNTs), and carbon black (CB) are well dispersed and coated over microscaled MCMB powders. In the design of the counter electrodes, the MCMB graphite offers an excellent medium that allows charge transfer from the ITO substrate to the dye molecule. The active materials such as Pt, CNT, and nanosize CB act as an active site provider for the redox reaction. Among these counter electrodes, the DSCs fabricated with CB electrode exhibit the highest power conversion efficiency. This improved efficiency can be attributed to the fact that the CB nanoparticles not only offer a large number of catalytic sites but also low charge transfer resistance, facilitating a rapid reaction kinetics. Such design of carbon counter electrode has been confirmed to be a promising candidate for replacing Pt electrodes

Case Report of Human Infection with \u3ci\u3eCapillaria philippinensis\u3c/i\u3e

In July 1988, a case of human infection with Capillaria philippinensis, so-called the intestinal capillariasis, was discovered at the National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH). This is the first case reported in Taiwan. Capillaria philippinesis is a parasite of fish-eating birds In nature it has a fish-bird life cycle. When human populations disrupt the natural cycle by eating raw fish infected with the larvae of C. philippinensis, they may acquire the disease